[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Stop Falling and Rebound on November 19, Spot Premiums Remain Firm

SMM Nickel November 19 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Although the probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in December has fallen below 50% in the interest rate swap market, some investors are still actively hedging, betting that the Fed will cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting next month. New developments show that options traders are buying large amounts of December options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in an attempt to profit from a potential 25-basis-point rate cut.

(2) A spokesperson for the US Department of Labor stated that as the federal government ends its shutdown, weekly unemployment benefit claim data will be released as usual on Thursday. The September Producer Price Index will be released on November 25, and the September import price data will be published on December 3.

Spot Market:

On November 19, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 115,400-119,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 117,600 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,000-4,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2512) opened higher and fluctuated rangebound during the night session, with a slight increase in the daytime session. As of the midday close, it was quoted at 115,620 yuan/mt, up 0.11%.

Recent significant declines in nickel prices, breaking through key support levels, combined with continuous accumulation of nickel inventory, collectively confirm the current market situation of ample supply and weak demand. Before the oversupply and high inventory situation reverses, nickel prices are expected to remain weak.